Northern Virginia Housing Market: What’s Really Going On Right Now?

Northern Virginia housing market trends—Fairfax County neighborhood at dusk.

If your feed is full of headlines about slowing sales, you’re not imagining it. A key driver right now is the federal government shutdown, which has created real, practical delays—especially for loans that depend on federal verifications and programs. That means slower IRS income checks and disruptions to FHA, VA, and USDA workflows, and in some areas, National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) issues—all of which can push closings back.

I’m keeping clients focused on the signal, not the noise. Here are five takeaways—grounded in current data and insights from Compass Chief Economist Mike Simonsen—to help you plan into 2025.

1) Local > National (Always)

National headlines rarely tell the Northern Virginia story. Fairfax County looks resilient: September’s median sale price held at $715,000, average Days on Market ~27, and Months of Supply ~1.8–1.9—consistent with a more balanced (not crashing) market.

2) Watch Price Reductions (Our Early-Warning System)

Compass Chief Economist Mike Simonsen notes that a lift in price reductions is an early indicator of shifting leverage toward buyers.

3) If Rates Dip, Expect a Crowd

Should mortgage rates move into the 5% range, more buyers (and move-up sellers) will likely jump back in. Demand pops can make well-priced, well-prepared homes move quickly—even while the broader economy works through headwinds.

4) Higher-for-Longer Isn’t All Bad

Today’s rates have loosened the 3% “locked-in” effect a bit, bringing more listings to market. More months of supply = more choice, better matches, and fewer bidding wars than the 2021 frenzy.

5) Data Builds Trust

Compass now has Simonsen—the “weekly, real-time” housing data guy—sharpening macro reads. I pair that with hyper-local Bright MLS data so you can act confidently on timing, pricing, negotiations, and whether a buydown or price move makes more sense.

What This Means for You

Sellers (3–6 months out): Use this window to pre-market—light updates, staging, pre-inspection, and pricing that anticipates spring demand.

Buyers: Watch for fresh price reductions and target listings at 20–35 days on market; that’s where negotiation room often lives. Consider credits or rate buydowns.

Financing tip: If your loan touches FHA/VA/USDA or flood insurance, build extra time into your contract while shutdown-related delays persist.

Fairfax County Snapshot (September)

• Median Sale Price: $715,000

• Avg. Days on Market: ~27

• Months of Supply: ~1.8–1.9

Want a 2-Minute Micro-Report for Your Neighborhood?

Comment below, use my Contact page, or request one now:

Get Your Neighborhood Report. I’ll send live inventory, reductions, and price trends—no fluff, just the charts.

— Eva Swersey, Compass • Vienna, Oakton, McLean & Northern Virginia

References

• Yahoo Finance

• Bipartisan Policy Center – “Lapsed Authorizations Compound the Impacts of a Government Shutdown” (NFIP context)

• CBS News – “How will the government shutdown affect people applying for mortgages and flood insurance?”

• Compass Newsroom – “Compass Names Mke Simonsen as Chief Economist

• HousingWire – “Mike Simonsen joins Compass as chief economist

• Altos Research Blog – “Price Reductions